Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. That said, let’s review my wildcard week predictions and brace ourselves for another fearless safari in the NFL playoff jungle.

Here is how we did last week:

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks upset the Super Bowl-defending Saints, 41–36. I had the Saints winning. (Who didn’t?) I also had the Seahawks covering the ten-point spread. And I took the over on the 44.5 total points. I was right on two of the three categories.

Using a simple point system that subtracts one point for guessing wrong and adds one point for getting it right, my score on this game: One point.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

The Jets won the game, 17–16. With just a three-point spread, it was not much of an upset.

I had the Colts winning and covering the spread. Wrong, wrong. I did take the under on the 44.5 total points. Got that one right.

My score on this game: -1.

Baltimore Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Ravens spanked the Chiefs, 30–7. I didn’t see that one coming. I had the Chiefs, three-point underdogs, winning the game outright. I did take the under on the 40.5 points scored, so there was some redemption.

My score: -1

Green Bay Packer @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Packers won the game, 21–16. They were 2.5 point underdogs. I had Green Bay winning. Yay, me. I did, unfortunately take the over on the 46.5. (Insert buzzer sound here.)

My score: 1

I ended up dead even for the week. Plenty ventured, nothing gained. (Not that I actually had any money on the outcomes. I am not that foolish.)

Now for this week’s match-ups. Once again, the winner is highlighted in bold. My pick against the line is underlined. (For example, I like New Orleans to win, but Seattle to cover, thus New Orleans is bold and Seattle is underlined.) The over/under is indicated by the ↑ and ↓ arrow. If you cannot figure out which arrow means which, please stay away from all sharp objects.

As you can see, I took the favorites in each game. I expect that week off to pay off. Seattle’s fairy tale ends today. We will have to wait another year for Rex Ryan’s verbal assaults on his next opponent. Pittsburgh will manage enough offense to send the Ravens home. And Atlanta always wins at home with quarterback Matt Ryan, who is 20–2 in the home dome.

The best games of the weekend promise to be in Pittsburgh and Atlanta, with the Ravens and Packers vying for the weekend upsets.

I welcome your predictions and I caution you making too much of mine. I have been fooled before.

Never mind that. Rush in.

The time has come to make our picks for the NFL playoffs. Some do this at the beginning of a season, which is dicey and mostly an exercise in futility and tomfoolery. (That doesn’t keep me from joining them occasionally, of course.)

Now that we know who the participants in the 2010 NFL Playoffs are, and where the odds-makers have set the odds, we can make an intelligent, informed prediction as to each game’s outcome. I would tell you to step right up and place your bets, but I advise you to keep your money in your pocket or invest it in your family. That way, you can enjoy the games, cheer for the team you like best, and enjoy the pure thrill of competition.

Still, the odds are in and the verdict is still out. So, here goes nothing. (“Nothing” is pretty much what predictions amount to…or nothing much, anyway.)

In the table below, I am making my picks. The winner is highlighted in bold. My pick against the line is underlined. (for example, I like New Orleans to win, but Seattle to cover, thus New Orleans is bold and Seattle is underlined.) The over/under is indicated by the ↑ and ↓ arrow. If you cannot figure out which arrow means which, please stay away from all sharp objects.

These are my picks for the wild card round of the NFL playoffs. Next week, we will revisit the picks to see how I did. I will also make my picks for the divisional round at that time.

If you have a different idea about how things will come out, use the comments section of this article, and let’s hear your thoughts on the matter.

Happy football!

2010 was a miserable year for the Dallas Cowboys and their fans. It may well have been the most disappointing year in team history.

Never fear silver and blue bloods: a new year has dawned and 2011 will be much kinder to your Cowboys.

That is, if there is football in 2011. Big “if” there.

So, provided there is NFL football in 2011, here are the top ten reasons the Cowboys will fare better and find themselves once more in contention for postseason play and more…

Number One: No more Wade Phillips.

It is not yet clear who will coach the Cowboys in 2011, but it is clear that it will not be the under-achieving, over-excusing, pompom-waving, affable Phillips.

Not long after his dismissal, Wade Phillips went on a Virginia Beach radio station and compared his Cowboys record to that of Tom Landry, saying that he had left with the same winning percentage as the Cowboys’ legendary coach of 29 years.  That laughable statement is roughly the equivalent of me saying I am as wealthy as Jerry Jones because we both have accounts at Chase Bank.

The truth of the matter is Wade took a team built by Parcells, poised to take that next step, and rode it into the ground. Based on the talent base and the ultimate results, Phillips may actually be the worst coach in team history, with apologies to his defensive backs coach and former Cowboys head coach Dave Campo.

Number Two: Jerry Jones will be compelled to make coaching and personnel decisions that are best for the team, rather than merely selecting the best candidates who are most likely to be “yes” men.

Jerry Jones, in a drunken admission recorded on a cell phone and posted on YouTube, confessed he only hired Parcells to shut the media up and change public perception so he could get his precious stadium built. Of course, once Parcells had had enough of Jones’ ridiculous meddling and left town, Jerry immediately hired himself the most capable puppet available: Wade Phillips.

Wade Phillips proceeded to give Jerry his most humiliating moments. They suffered a huge blowout loss to the Eagles in the final game of 2009, ending the team’s playoff hopes. They lost the last game ever in Texas Stadium to the Ravens. They lost the first game ever in the new stadium to the hated New York Giants. They were utterly destroyed by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2010 playoffs, after winning their first playoff game in 15 years. And they were throttled and embarrassed by the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, falling to a ridiculous 1–7 record at the time.

Financially, Jones is in it up to his false teeth with that new stadium. He cannot afford to put his ego ahead of the team’s success. As badly as he wants to construct things so that this time he will get the credit for success, rather than the coach (he still smarts over the Jimmy Johnson days), he will have to make moves that make sense, or suffer dire consequences. Whether he ultimately decides to stick with Jason Garrett or to pursue one of the proven Super Bowl-winning coaches available, you can bet he will make the hire with the primary concern being whether the coach can take the Dallas Cowboys back to Super Bowl glory.

Number Three: The Cowboys will get a top ten 2011 draft pick.

While it is always dicey to have Jerry pulling the strings on draft day, it is much more difficult to screw up a top ten draft pick than one in the latter part of the first round. With so many holes to fill—offensive line, defensive line, safety, linebacker, cornerback—there figures to be real value and a potential opening day starter available when the Cowboys make their first pick.

Number Four: The 2011 schedule will favor the Cowboys.

The NFL has worked its schedule so that out-of-division play features match ups between teams who finished in the same place in divisional standings. First place teams face first place teams, second place teams face second place teams, and so on. The Cowboys had a murderous schedule this year because they won their division in 2009.

Number Five: Dez Bryant will continue to emerge.

Dez Bryant was the best first-round pick the Cowboys have made since DeMarcus Ware. In an injury-shortened rookie season, Dez caught 45 passes for 561 yards and six touchdowns. He was the king of the circus catch, and easily the most aggressive offensive skill player on the team.

In addition to his prowess as a big-play receiver, Dez was a special teams standout. He had 15 punt returns for 215 yards and two touchdowns. He also returned 12 kickoffs for 293 yards.

Number Six: The Cowboys will be forced to get younger at inside linebacker.

Keith Brooking has been a pro bowl player. He has been a team leader. He has also been the heart and soul of the Cowboys’ defense since his arrival two years ago. Unfortunately, that defense is one of the worst in the league now, and Brooking has clearly lost a step. It happens to the best of them, and he is among the best of them.

The harsh reality is that neither Bradie James nor Brooking have had much of an impact this year, other than being torched on passing routes and gouged by the running game. Both men are leaders. They just have not performed in 2010.

Sean Lee may be part of the answer. He had better be. But there will have to be someone else emerge, as well.

Number Seven: The Cowboys will address the safety position.

Alan Ball works hard. But, as Clark Griswold’s father-in-law famously said, “So do washing machines.”

The Dallas Cowboys must have help at the safety position. Good safety play is absolutely essential to the success of any defense. Too often, the Cowboys’ safeties are seen coming into the picture just in time to wave at a receiver as he races to the end zone. Inept safety play impacts the effectiveness of cornerbacks, because they have to play softer, less aggressive, when they know there is no adequate help over the top.

Number Eight: There will be more Tashard Choice and less Marion Barber.

Marion Barber was once a great change-of-pace back, coming in to relieve Julius Jones late in the game, when the defense is tired. He used his relentless, battering ram style to break down said defenses and secure victories. Then, he became the featured back and has never been very effective since.

Barber is showing signs of slowing down. It may be that his bruising running style has taken its toll on body and mind.

Marion Barber also continues to make bonehead decisions that hurt his team, like ripping off his helmet after a touchdown or over-celebrating a three-yard run.

Meanwhile, Choice has shown himself to be perhaps the most complete back on the team. He can get the tough yards. He can make the important play in the passing game. He can break off a good run here and there.

Number Nine: Jon Kitna has impacted this team.

Tony Romo is not a fiery leader, known for holding his teammates accountable. His most famous quote to date is something like, “Football is fun.”

Kitna is a different kind of cat. He is fiery. He is ultra-competitive. He will get in your face just as quickly as he will jump in your arms. He also stands up and takes responsibility for failure, even if it doesn’t necessarily belong to him.

Romo and Kitna seem to have a good rapport. You have to believe that Romo has been watching his more-experienced replacement operate. Expect Tony to be focused and single-minded come 2011.

Oh, and healthy. A healthy Romo is absolutely essential to this team’s success.

Number Ten: Training Camp will actually take place.

The Cowboys treated the 2010 training camp like a rock band tour, moving it three different times, from San Antonio to California to Dallas. Only a handful of days were actually spent in full pads, featuring full contact.

Coach Wade “Marshmallow Puff” Phillips felt he had the kind of team he could just suit up and run out there and win enough games to keep his job. Competition for starting positions was nonexistent. There was a sense of entitlement that permeated the organization, from the owner/general manager and the head coach on down.

Whomever Jerry chooses to lead this team is bound to change that. (Heck, late-season practices under Jason Garrett have been more intense than training camp was under Phillips.)

It is a new year and hope springs eternal. Off with the old. On with the new.

Raise your glass to the new-look, more successful Dallas Cowboys.

Cheers!

Get ready for an understatement or two, starting…now.

Sports betting is big business. Super Bowl betting is the biggest of that very big business. It is also risky business: more so now because of free agency and because of the way the NFL schedules the toughest teams from the prior year against one another, giving the teams with poor records an easier path to contention because their non-divisional games are played against other weaker teams.

2011 Super Bowl betting has been made precarious by the unexpected implosion of favorites like the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings and the unforeseen meteoric rise of the Atlanta Falcons.

But you know what they say: No risk, no reward.

Who could have guessed 16 weeks ago that the current favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLV would be the Atlanta Falcons while the Cowboys would have fallen to 5–10 and in contention for a top ten draft pick, but not in contention to play in the Super Bowl they will host in a few weeks?

A quick check of the odds this morning shows Tom Brady’s New England Patriots leading the pack at 5/2 odds. The Falcons come in at 11/2, while the Philadelphia Eagles (the NFC East team that was supposed to be in a bit of a rebuilding season) come in at 6/1, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7/1.

Besides going 2–6 in their billion-dollar home stadium, what do you suppose is the worst nightmare for Cowboys fans? How about waiting 45 years to host their first Super Bowl and, when it finally arrives, it features two of their most hated rivals over the years? Imagine how irksome to Jerry Jones and all of north Texas if the Philadelphia Eagles should face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Jerry World!

It is not very far-fetched, is it?

(I just threw up a little in my mouth.)

Back to 2011 Super bowl betting. As of this writing, the current AFC divisional leaders are as follows: The New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Jacksonville is tied with the Colts, record-wise and San Diego is only a game back of the Chiefs. The Baltimore Ravens are 1/2 game back of the Steelers in the standings in the AFC North.

The NFC shakes out like this. The divisional leaders are the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chicago Bears, the Atlanta Falcons, and the St. Louis Rams. The Bears have clinched their division, while their bunk mates, the Packers and the Vikings—the two teams that were supposed to duke it out for the Black and Blue Division—are slumping toward elimination altogether.

The ridiculous West Division is lead by two 6–8 teams, the Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. This may well be the first time in NFL history that a team in a non-strike season wins a division with a losing record.

The New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants seem to be the best bet to secure wild card spots in the NFC.

So, who will win Super Bowl XLV?

I do not know. Check back with me after week 17, when the playoffs are set and I will give you my fool-proof predictions. Not one minute sooner.

Sorry. This Super Bowl prediction business is tougher than it looks. Odds are the current odds will be different before this day is done.

I like to hedge my bet by at least knowing who the contestants will be; therefore, I will give my predictions when the playoff picture is set, thank you very much.

The one sad thing I know with absolute certainty is this: it will not be the Dallas Cowboys. To the heart that pumps silver and blue blood, that is a tough pill to swallow.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a score to settle.

In fact, they have three scores to settle. In 2009, the Dallas Cowboys swept the Eagles, winning twice in the regular season and then humiliating Philadelphia 34–14 in the opening round of the playoffs.

It was the Cowboys’ first playoff win since the Clinton administration.

Before that playoff win a year ago, the last time the Cowboys had posted a postseason win was 1996. That was the year that Atlanta hosted the summer Olympics. Michael Vick was a senior…in high school; the guy formerly known as Snoop Doggy Dogg was acquitted on charges of first degree murder; Lisa Marie Presley filed for divorce from Michael Jackson; Tupac Shakur was shot and killed; and Tommy Lee showed the world a new way to honk a horn.

Let’s just say that last year, the Dallas Cowboys ended a long, long drought at the expense of the Eagles. But that was 2009, an eon ago. That was back when the Eagles had Donovan McNabb at quarterback and the Cowboys had Tony Romo.

You remember McNabb? The all-time winningest quarterback in Eagles history. The man who threw for nearly 33,000 yards as an Eagle, the most in team history. The man who took them to five NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. The man the fans often lustily booed and couldn’t wait to be rid of.

Yeah.

That McNabb. Mr. Close-But-No-Cigar.

Of course, being booed by Philadelphia Eagles fans is nothing special. These are the kind of drunken boobs that boo their mom’s Thanksgiving meal. These are the kind of people that throw a hymnal at the preacher for going a couple minutes too long in the Sunday sermon. They are the kind that prank their kids on Christmas morning.

The Philly fans figured it was time to give Kevin Kolb his chance. He was the savior waiting in the wings, ready to take center stage and finally take this franchise where they have never been before, to the podium to accept the Lombardi trophy.

Kolb got his chance.

He didn’t do well.

Then he got hurt, which was the Eagles’ and coach Andy Reid’s good fortune.

Enter Michael Vick, the man who will not be nominated for PETA Man of the Year, but may well win NFL Most Valuable Player.

This is not your Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Vick, which was freaky good in its own right.

This is the post-prison, more mature Michael Vick.

This is the Vick that has led his team to a second place ranking in offense.

This is the Vick whose offense averages more than 400 yards per game.

This Vick has thrown for 15 touchdowns and run for six more.

This Vick has a quarterback rating of 105.

This Michael Vick is still the best running back in the game almost every time he steps on the field. But he is a good deal more. He may be most dangerous when flushed from the pocket. He may be better at the improv than Robin Williams, Eddie Izzard and Mitch Hedberg combined. That, however, does not mean he cannot beat you from the pocket. He can. This Michael Vick has only thrown two interceptions all season.

So, how do the Cowboys avoid being victimized by Mike? It is simple, really. But it won’t be easy.

1. Play keep away. Last week, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined for more than 200 yards on the ground. A repeat or near-repeat would go a long way toward beating Vick’s Eagles.
2. Play field position. Make Vick drive the length of the field. Coach Andy Reid hardly ever runs the ball. The farther his team has to move the ball through the air in order to score, the better the chance a mistake will be made.
3. Stay in your lanes, pass rushers. Keep Vick in the pocket and then collapse it on him. Let him squirt outside on you and grab your track shoes, because the race is on and you are going to come in a distant second.
4. Mix up coverages and disguise blitzes. Michael Vick reads defenses better than he used to, but don’t give him an easy read. Make him read War and Peace.
5. Score 30 points or more. The Cowboys have done this in three of the four games under interim head coach, Jason Garrett. Do it again.

See? Simple. Not easy. But simple. Fail to accomplish at least four of those five things and you will be victims of the most impressive NFL comeback in memory: the return of Michael Vick.

Here is a last-minute football prediction for you: In the game dubbed by many as the Panic Bowl between the 1-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 1-3 Minnesota Vikings, the Cowboys will beat the odds, the crowd and the Vikes.

That’s right. You heard it hear last: The Cowboys will win and Brett Favre will be their most valuable player.

Oh, I know. Favre is listed as a game-time decision. There is all of this drama about whether his remarkable consecutive-start streak will finally end. His elbow hurts.

Don’t fall for it, folks. This is Favre being Favre. Sure, he hurts. What 41 year old playing in the National Football League doesn’t hurt?

Brett will play today. He may not finish, but he will start. And that will be good enough to get the Cowboys that desperation win they have to have in order not to see their 2010 season flushed in week six.

The Cowboys will win because Brett is hurt.

Whatever else Brett Favre may be, he is a gamer. He plays when others won’t. That is admirable. He has been called “a quarterback with a linebacker mentality.” That he is. But that does not mean the decision to play is always the wisest decision.

Brett’s elbow is hurting him. They say he has tendinitis in it. That is not a good thing. Quarterbacks need their elbows not to be nagging them with sharp pains every time they hurl the rock.

The Cowboys will win because Brett is embattled.

Unless you have been on a recent missions trip to Uganda or just returned from the space station, you have heard about, or maybe even seen, the picture of Brett’s appendage, which he allegedly sent via text message to the beautiful Jenn Sterger, a model-turned-repporter.

You have probably heard the voice messages Dead Spin placed on the web as well, the ones that have notorious family man Brett making a booty call to Ms. Sterger.

Now, all of this allegedly happened while Brett was with the Jets, but that doesn’t mean it is in the past.

The Cowboys will win because Brett is Brett.

Brett Favre is a Cowboy. He is a rootin’-tootin’, gun-slinger. Watch a video montage of his greatest NFL moments and it will be replete with plays where he scrambled around, bought time, slung the ball down the field, found his man, and completed an impossible pass.

Conversely, you can put together a worst-Brett Favre-moments video and it will look exactly the same, except, rather than completing the pass to hi teammate, he completes it to the opponent in a disastrous play that costs his team the game.

That’s just Favre.

The Cowboys, I know, do not have a ball-hawking defense. For all the lauding of Phillips as a talent-evaluator and defensive coordinator, he has a assembled a defense that can make big plays, but never forces a turnover. They never give their offense a short field and an easy score.

Today, they will not have to force anything. They will just have to be standing somewhere in the vicinity when Favre does.

The Cowboys will win because Brett is old.

Brett Favre, like all good narcissists (aka, great players who just cannot walk away), won’t leave well enough alone. He keeps thinking he has one last hurrah in him. He thinks he will win that second ring this time.

He is wrong. He doesn’t have it in him and he won’t win any rings. Brett is finally breaking down. Sure, he can still sling the ball like few ever have, but his body does not snap back from the pounding and the general grind of an NFL game week to week like it once did.

The NFL is no country for old men.

Brett shouldn’t play today, but he will. Because of that, the Cowboys will defeat the Vikings.

Thanks, Brett.

Despite all my best efforts to prevent it, my knee keeps jerking. When a writer is a fan first, he has the liberty to throw the mythical notion of objectivity out the window and just say what he thinks or feels.

After a loss like the one the Dallas Cowboys suffered at the hands of the overmatched-but-still-victorious Washington Redskins, a fan/commentator finds it nigh impossible to keep his knee-jerking under control.

So, then I ask myself: Why bother? And I cannot give a decent answer.

Therefore, I shall proceed to knee-jerk like a spastic, freshly-murdered corpse whose nervous system hasn’t quite reconciled itself to its new condition. And, since everyone loves a list, I will do it in orderly fashion.

I can count on one hand the reasons the Cowboys lost to the Redskins and on the other hand I can count the reasons Jerry Jones’ dream of his team becoming the first in NFL history to play a home game for the Super Bowl is only slightly more likely than Texas Rangers’ skipper Ron Washington speaking the King’s English in a post-game press conference.

Five Reasons the Cowboys Lost to the Redskins

1. Wade Phillips. Wade is a brilliant defensive coordinator whose defense, once again, played brilliantly. The Redskins’ offense hasn’t scored a TD on Wade’s boys in three games. It is a beautiful thing to have a bona fide x-and-o genius coordinate your defense…unless you also give him the keys to the head coach’s office. That call at the end of the first half, the one that called for a hail mary or something insane like that, the one that every peewee football coach in captivity knew should have been a kneel down, was one more in a long line of firable offenses. But Wade won’t be fired. He is too good at being Jerry’s hand puppet. I know that many will blame Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett for the call, and I am sure he shares in it. But any head coach worth his salt has to know to veto such a bonehead move…and have the mettle to do it.
2. Jason Garrett. Yes, Garrett gets his share of the blame, and not just because of the blunder at the end of the first half. His play-calling mixed the genius of innovation with the miracle of the absurd. From calling nothing but three-step drops and quick screens to opting for a halfback pass near the opponent’s goal line, Garrett displayed a total lack of confidence in his prize collection of stellar offensive talent.
3. Alex Barron. There is a reason a first-round left tackle is available for trade. There is a reason the guy wasn’t good enough to be on the lowly St. Louis Rams’ squad. Simply stated: He sucks. He was caught holding three times in the ballgame, and every time mattered, but none mattered quite so much as the time he nullified the winning touchdown pass on the game’s final play.
4. Brian Arakpo. The defensive end-turned-outside linebacker was a tour de force. He wreaked some pretty good havoc and caused match-up problems for both of the offensive tackles, especially the knucklehead Barron.
5. Mike Shanahan. Somehow, Shanahan navigated the treacherous waters of unhappy 100 million dollar giant defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, successfully introduced a new 3-4 scheme defense, and got just enough out of his offense to score an unlikely opening day upset victory over the hated Cowboys. There have been worse coaching debuts, for sure.

Five Reasons the Dallas Cowboys Are Not Likely to Become the First Team to Participate in a Super Bowl at their Home Stadium

1. Wade Phillips. After the devastating loss, a battle-weary and beaten-down Phillips faced the media. He accepted the blame for the disastrous last play of the first half, the one that resulted in a turn-over and touchdown for the Redskins. But then he proceeded to ease that blame over to the player, saying how silly it was for Tashard Choice to be fighting for an extra yard on such a play. Blame-shifting and excuse-making have been hallmarks of Wade Phillips’ tenure in Dallas. As long as that remains the case, it is highly unlikely he will ever lead this or any other team to the ultimate prize. Moreover, his team often seems unprepared on game day, too mistake-prone, and sometimes downright shell-shocked.
2. Jason Garrett. If the object of the game was to rack up as many yards between the twenty yard lines as possible. Garrett’s offense would be the most dominant in the league. But it isn’t. His erratic play-calling and poorly-timed trickeries more often than not result in field goal opportunities, punts, or turn-overs. He continues to show flashes of brilliance, but seems mostly incapable of designing an offense that finds a groove and stays in it. He often seems to outsmart himself.
3. The Offensive Line. All that firepower the Cowboys tout— i.e., the three-headed running monster, the Miles Austin-led receiving corps, all that talent at tight end, the supremely gifted Tony Romo at quarterback— means absolutely nothing if your offensive line cannot dominate the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys are trying to hold on until Kyle Kosier and Marc Colombo get back from injury. But these guys aren’t spring chickens and even when they return, there is no guarantee they play at the high level they are accustomed to, nor is there any assurance they won’t be plagued by an injury recurrence.
4. David Buehler. This kid has a cannon for a leg. There is no arguing that fact. As a kickoff specialist, he is a weapon. He can even clean up behind his kick coverage team and make spectacular tackles when necessary.He remains, however, a huge question mark in the field goal department. He made nine of ten kicks in the preseason. But this is not preseason and he is Oh! for one after missing a 34-yard attempt Sunday night.
5. The Green Bay Packers. The Packers did not play well in Philadelphia. Aaron Rodgers did not have a great day and admitted as much after the game. The played poorly. But…they won over a lesser opponent! The Cowboys faced an even more vulnerable opponent in the Redskins. The Cowboys didn’t have their A game either…and they lost. Good teams lose games they should win. Great teams win games they should probably lose.

Hey, I know. It is only week one and I have already admitted that this article is a classic example of disgruntled fan knee-jerking. My overreaction, however, does not mean there is no reason for concern. I am not yet ready to raise the white flag of surrender. But I sure see some red flags when I look at this team, not to mention a few too many yellow ones.

This is, I know, just one loss in a 16-game season. I am not quite ready to declare Fed Ex Field Wade Phillips’ Little Bighorn. I do believe, however, that if he doesn’t find a way to get this team to play to its potential, the 2010 season may well be his last stand.

I know it should be.

So, the NFL schedule is out and the mad rush to predict the future is on.

I personally think these April predictions border on the absurd. So much will change between now and the first week of the regular season. Not to mention that there is no real continuity any more. Yesterday’s thoroughbred is today’s nag and vice versa.

None of that, however, will stop me from throwing my hat into the prediction ring. I can be as ridiculous as the next guy. So, here I go with my very own formula for building an NFC East crystal ball and staring the future fearlessly in the face.

My formula for determining the strength of schedule for each of the three teams goes like so:

• I took the opponent’s record from 2009 and used their winning percentage as a base. If an opponent was, say 8 – 8, then the base would be .500. An opponent who was 12 – 4 a year ago gets a base of .750
• I then add 10 percent if the game is played at the opponent’s place. I subtract 10 percent if it is a home game for the team in question. So, that .500 opponent will be .550 if it is an away game and .450 if it is at home.
• Finally, I strike an average of the team’s sixteen opponents and that becomes the strength of schedule for that team.

This year, the NFC East has drawn a tough assignment in inter-divisional play. They are paired with the NFC North and the AFC South. So, the beasts from the East will run into a few buzz saws from places like Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Green Bay. They will also face some tough customers in the likes of the Texans, Bears, Titans, and Jaguars.

The only real patsy in the bunch is the Detroit Lions, everyone’s favorite whipping post.

DALLAS COWBOYS

In addition to the six divisional games and the eight games in divisional match-up play, the Cowboys will play host to last year’s Super Bowl champs, the New Orleans Saints and will visit the NFC West champions from a year ago, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys have the third most difficult schedule in the entire league in 2010.

I have their 2010 strength of schedule at .571.

I have penciled the Cowboys in for five road losses: at Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay, Minnesota and Indianapolis. I have them perfect at home, thus finishing 11 – 5, the same record they had in 2009.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles finished 11 – 5 as well last year, but their defensive breakdowns in the late going and the change from Donovan McNabb to the mostly untested Kevin Kolb.

I anticipate a bit of a rebuilding year for Andy Reid’s squad. The Eagles do get the Packers, Vikings, and Colts at home, but that advantage may not be enough to lift them into playoff contention. They will also face the 49ers in San Francisco and the Falcons at home, both tough draws.

The Eagles strength of schedule checks in at .567, and the crystal ball reveals the Eagles are headed for an 8 – 8 finish, missing the playoffs.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The New York Giants were a grave disappointment to their fans a year ago. 2010 may not offer citizens of the Big Apple much more in the way of hope. Tom Coughlin’s dour, no-nonsense approach to coaching is a fine thing when things are going well. He may grind on some nerves if the season goes into a tailspin.

Th Giants have to travel to Indianapolis, Houston, Minnesota, and Green Bay. That may prove to be Murderer’s Row for the G-Men. Their strength of schedule is .535, thanks largely to the fact that they get the Panthers at home and the Seahawks in Seattle.

The Giants will finish 8 – 8 and wait for another time to compete for a Super Bowl.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Hail to the Redskins! They have solved their quarterback quandary for the moment and have placed the future of their franchise into the capable hands of Mike Shanahan. They are on the right track.

The ‘Skins, however, have a ways to go before they threaten for the division, let alone anything more glorious. With a schedule strength of .531, this 4 – 12 team from a year ago will make some progress, but will not make .500.

Thanks to the soft draws of the Rams in St. Louis and the Buccaneers at home, they will pick up a couple of wins more than they had a year ago, finishing 6 – 10 with hope for the future.

My conclusion? The Cowboys win their second division in a row and challenge to be the first team in history to play a home game in the Super Bowl, while the rest of the NFC East get their legs under them, but fail to make the playoffs.

You can see my Strength of Schedule and Prediction Chart here. I welcome your feedback, criticisms, remarks, and admission of my genius.

He hired me not, He hired me

Welcome to the brave world of NFL playoff predictions, where a writer puts his reputation for good sense and objective reasoning on the line by making a way-too-specific prediction about things to come. I feel like a weatherman, but even they have the good sense to hedge their bet.

“There is a 50% chance of rain.”

What kind of prediction is that? The guy just said there is as much chance it won’t rain as there is that it will. The only time a weatherman gives a 100% prediction is when he can look outside and see that it is in fact raining. Then, he takes that bold step.

But enough about the weather. This is about Super Bowl XLIV, which is to be played in Miami, where the weather is always balmy, right? You know where it will be played. You know when it will be played. Now, I am here to tell you who will be playing in it.

A Cowboys-Chargers Super Bowl is a rather chic pick at the moment. Many NFL prognosticators are liking these two teams, and for good reason. The Dallas Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC right now as they are riding a three-game win streak and have shut out their last two opponents. They are clicking on all cylinders.

The only playoff team hotter than the Cowboys is the San Diego Chargers. The red-hot Chargers are riding a dazzling eleven-game win streak—a streak that includes victories over three playoff teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, and Cincinnati—into the postseason.

The Dallas Cowboys and the San Diego Chargers will meet in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami in a rematch between week 14 opponents. And that is why I am pushing for Super Bowl XLIV to be called Jerry Bowl I. I know, it is a year early. Jerry Jones and his Cowboys Stadium aren’t set to host the Super Bowl until next year, but that will be Jerry Bowl II.

Jerry Bowl I should be dubbed because it will feature the coach Jerry Jones hired, Wade Phillips, and the coach most fans thought he would and should have hired, Norv Turner. Jerry figured he had already put his offense into good hands when he got the cart way out ahead of the horse and hired Jason Garrett to be his offensive coordinator before he even hired his head coach. He figured he needed someone to shore up his defense. So he went Wade rather than Norv.

Come Feb. 7, Jones will get the ultimate view of the offense he eschewed against the defense he chose. He will see his “what might have been” coaching against his “what is.”

And it ought to make for a classic.

The Cowboys Road To Miami

After the Cowboys complete a season sweep of the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday, they will begin preparing for the most difficult leg of their journey. Oh, I know Philly won’t be a cakewalk—or shouldn’t be. I know they will make adjustments. I also know this is week 18. They are what they are…and what they are isn’t good enough. The Cowboys will beat them again, and do it in front of the loudest Cowboys crowd since the early ’90s.

The most difficult leg of the journey will come in week two, when they go to Minnesota to play the very dangerous Vikings in that phone booth called the Metrodome with 60,000 screaming purple-painted, all-of-a-sudden Favre fans. Adrian Peterson and a stingy defense will test the Cowboys’ mettle, however, the key to the ‘Boys’ win over the Vikings will be Brett Favre, Sr. being harassed, molested, assaulted, and harried into making costly mistakes while Brett Favre, Jr. (aka, Tony Romo) avoids said mistakes.

The Cowboys will be glad to get out of Minnesota with a victory and at least some of their hearing.

I like their chances in the NFC Championship game, whether it is at home hosting the Green Bay Packers or Arizona Cardinals, or on the road against the New Orleans Saints. The most trying scenario would definitely be going into the Superdome to face a potent—and pissed-off—Saints’ offense, surrounded by the most rabid, oiled-up, mad-for-any-kind-of-hope fans in the known universe.

Still, whether in Minnesota, New Orleans, or home sweet ninth wonder of the world, I like the Cowboys chances because they have a havoc-wreaking, slow-to-give-up-points defense. Most every team in the playoffs will be led by a more-than-capable quarterback, or they wouldn’t be there.

The difference this time of year usually starts with a “D,” and the D is big in Dallas.

The Chargers’ Path to Glory

For the San Diego Chargers, the object is clear. Win that first game at home, whether it is Cincy, Baltimore, or New England. Just hold serve at home. Their cause will be aided by the fact that some eastern time zone team is going to have to travel west, after having played in the wild card round while the Chargers were sun-bathing on the lovely San Diego beaches.

Round two for the Chargers is the last step to the Big Game. Either they will play it in Indy, or they will play whomever they play at home. You have to figure that going to Indianapolis would be the biggest challenge. Only, the Chargers seldom seem to mind playing the Colts in the playoffs, wherever the game is played. They have beaten Manning (which, let’s face it, you are playing the Man, not the team; he IS the team) once at home and once in Indy in the past two postseasons.

The Chargers don’t mind going to Indianapolis so much. The Chargers are a warm weather team, and the Colts have the decency to at least play indoors, which means 70 degrees, which is the exact temperature it always seems to be in sunny San Diego. Besides, the Colts picked up and left the east coast all those years ago and settled in the Midwest. That makes the commute much nicer and the jet lag nonexistent.

The Super Bowl Itself

I know what you want here. You want me to man up and predict who will win Jerry Bowl I.

OK. Fine. But I will have to make two predictions here: the one my heart tells me to make, and the one my head insists upon. Here goes:

The Heart says, Cowboys win 24 – 21.

The Head says, Chargers win, 24 – 21.

Wait a minute! That is like one of those 50-50 predictions.

Guess I am more like a weatherman than I thought.

The face of the future?

Who will be The Team of the Teens? By that, I do not mean the team of kids between 12 and 19. I mean the team that will outshine all others in the 2010—2019 decade. The team that will record multiple Super Bowl victories. The team everyone else will hate and emulate at the same time. The team that will define the decade.

In every decade, the NFL has unofficially declared one team the  premier team. In the 1960s, it was the Green Bay Packers, with their hard-charging, single-minded head coach Vince Lombardi. The ’70s belonged to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Terry Bradshaw, as they claimed four Super Bowl trophies to outshine the Dallas Cowboys, who made a remarkable five trips to the Super Bowl in that ten year span, winning two.

The 1980s were all about The San Francisco 49ers; the emergence of the West Coast offense, the brainchild of their genius head coach Bill Walsh; and that skinny quarterback with the steely nerves and the indomitable will, Joe Montana.

The ’90s belonged to the lip-smacking, never-a-hair-out-of-place Jimmy Johnson; the brash new face of the NFL, Jerry Jones; the fair-haired, golden-armed Oklahoma kid from California, Troy Aikman; and the Dallas Cowboys in general. They won three Super Bowls in four years, the first time that had ever been done.

The first decade in the new century brought us Bill Belichick with his cut up sweatshirts and his unbelievable sixth round find, Tom Brady. The Brady Bunch won three consecutive Super Bowls. They then posted the frst-ever perfect 16-0 regular season mark (the Dolphins’ perfect season was in the 14-game era), blew through the AFC playoffs, and then lost a heart-breaker to the upstart New York Giants.

So, who is next? Which team is poised to claim its very own decade and become part of that “greatest team ever” argument? To ascertain the likeliest candidates, it is first necessary to contemplate the formula. History suggests there is a predictor—a formula that seems too consistent to ignore.

Every team of the decade had a couple things in common: A relatively young coach coming into his own and establishing himself as a great leader/technician/motivator; a young superstar quarterback; a dominating (or at least very difficult to deal with) defense.

Consider…

• The 1960s Packers had Vince Lombardi, whose influence on the game was so significant they named the Super Bowl trophy after him, and Bart Starr. Now, Starr was not a sensational quarterback, but he was a great field general who understood and executed his coach’s offense to perfection.
• The 1970s Steelers had Chuck Knoll, who began a coaching tradition like no other there in the Steel City. They also had Terry Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain. The honorable mention Dallas Cowboys had a fellow named Tom Landry and a quarterback named Roger Staubach, not to mention DoomsDay I & II.
• The 1980s 49ers had Bill Walsh forever changing the game with his X’s and O’s and Joe Montana making his case for best quarterback ever. They had a salty defense led by the likes or Ronnie Lott, too.
• The 1990s Cowboys were lead by Jimmy Johnson, the first coach ever to win both a NCAA championship and a Super Bowl. They were led on the field by the unflappable Troy Aikman. And, they had a defense that was quick, nasty, and sometimes downright dominating.
• The 2000s Patriots. Belichick. Brady. Bruschi. What more need we say?

So, if we assume this formula works and is a pretty good indicator of things to come, which team currently stands poised to climb Mount Domination in the 2010s? Here are my top six candidates, beginning with number six:

Number Six: Cincinnati Bengals

I know. Carson Palmer is already a six year veteran. The Bengals are good defensively, but not dominating. Marvin Lewis is not on many people’s “next coaching genius” list. Let’s not forget, however, that Lewis did help construct that Baltimore Ravens’ defense. He did spend valuable time on that Pittsburgh Steelers’ coaching staff. Carson Palmer is a strong-armed quarterback with more than sufficient skills to get the job done. Chad Ochocinco is no slouch. The running game has found its legs.

Most importantly, this beleaguered franchise has the taste of victory fresh in its mouth.

Number Five: Arizona Cardinals

The biggest missing piece here is the young quarterback. What they have at QB right now is pure greatness. Kurt Warner is also nearing Methuselah’s age. The other pieces are in place, though. Coach Whisenhunt has already made his mark on the team, getting them into last year’s Super Bowl, and coming within a Roethlissberger drive of winning it. The defense can be stingy and opportunistic. The receiving corps is as good as any in football.

And…the team finally believes it can.

Number Four: Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco is the X-factor here. Will he become more than a game manager? Will he be a play-maker? John Harbaugh, like his brother, appears to be the real deal. He could be the kind of young coach that makes his mark on the league. The defensive tradition in Baltimore is already well established and must simply be replenished.

Number Three: Green Bay Packers

The long shadow of Brett Favre is withering as the traitorous legend leads the Packers’ arch enemy into the playoffs. It is withering because of the play of  their Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It is withering because the Packers’ defense ranks ninth in points allowed and second in yardage yielded. It is withering because Head Coach Mike McCarthy has his team poised and focused on the future, rather than dwelling on the past.

Could that future include another “team of the decade” for the citizens of the diminutive city of champions to cherish? It could.

Number Two: Dallas Cowboys

OK. Call me a homer, but I like where this team sits right now. The unknown quotient is a biggie: namely, who will be the coach going forward? The quarterback Tony Romo, however, I believe, is poised to become one of the league’s best. He has already set a number of team records in just his third full year as a starter. This is no small thing when you consider he holds the position held by guys named Meredith, Staubach, White, and Aikman.

The defense, under the guidance of current coach Wade Phillips has begun to assert itself, keeping some of the league’s most potent offensive attacks in check. Most of the defense is young. In fact, apart from the aging offensive line, most of the team is fairly young.

The Cowboys could be set to do that every-other-decade thing they do. It all depends on Jerry and the choice he makes at head coach.

Number One: New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees and Sean Payton have proven a lethal duo. This team hangs basketball-like numbers on opponents with a good deal of regularity. And now, they have Gregg Williams running the defense.

The Saints have already come within a game of the Super Bowl a couple seasons ago. They have gotten the homefield advantage for themselves in the current playoffs. They are young, hungry, and poised to become a force for the next eight to ten years.

Of course, plenty of other teams could have something to say about this. The Redskins may finally be headed in the right direction with the changes in front office leadership. The Colts and Patriots are still quality, well-oiled machines with quarterbacks whose names are already legendary and will be forever in any argument about the best to ever play the game. I like where the Texans are. The 49ers have the right coach in place, I believe.

My honorable mention team, however, is Norv Turner’s San Diego Chargers. Phillip Rivers and Company are—and should continue to be—a force with which to be reckoned.

It is conceivable that this will be the decade dominated by parity, that no team will assert itself. The magic wand may pass from hand to hand, team to team, city to city. History, however, suggests some team somewhere will emerge as the team to beat.

It could be yours.